What are Recent League Adjusted and Recent Quality Adjusted?
Recent League Adjusted (Rcnt Lg Adj) measures how much more or less an opponent strikes out compared to the league average, specific to the pitcher's handedness and game location. A team showing +15% vs LHP at home means they strike out 15% more than average in that exact split. This value factors the opponent's recent performance through a custom blend.
Recent Quality Adjusted (Rcnt Qual Adj) takes it a step further — it accounts for the actual strikeout rates of the pitchers that team has faced over their last 15 games. A team that has faced elite strikeout pitchers will have an inflated raw K rate. Quality Adjusted strips out that noise and reveals the team's underlying K tendency.
K Signal = Rcnt Qual Adj − Rcnt Lg Adj
Both Positive (opponent is K-prone in this split)
K Signal Positive: They strike out a lot and they've done it against soft pitching — they haven't even faced tough arms yet and they're already whiffing. True K tendency is higher than the surface shows. This is the best-case pitcher matchup — hidden K upside the raw split undersells.
K Signal Negative: They strike out a lot, but they've been facing elite strikeout pitchers that did the heavy lifting. Still an above-average K tendency, but the raw split is inflated. Good matchup, just not as good as it looks.
Both Negative (opponent is contact-oriented)
K Signal Positive: They look very contact-heavy on the surface, but they've been facing low-K pitching that deflated their K rate. The real contact ability isn't quite as extreme. Bad matchup but slightly overstated — a sliver of hidden K upside.
K Signal Negative: They look contact-oriented and the schedule correction makes it worse — they've faced weak arms and still aren't striking out. True K tendency is even lower than the raw split. Worst case for a pitcher.
Lg Adj Positive, Qual Adj Negative (the trap)
The surface says K-prone. The schedule says it's completely manufactured — they've faced elite strikeout pitchers that inflated the rate. After correction, they're actually below average. The K upside is a total trap.
Lg Adj Negative, Qual Adj Positive (the hidden gem)
The surface says contact-oriented. The schedule says they've been fed soft arms and their raw K rate is depressed by easy matchups. Real tendency is actually above average. This is where you find contrarian K upside that the market misses.
This stat answers one question: "How much is schedule quality distorting the K matchup signal?"
Positive = hidden K upside (raw undersells it). Negative = inflated K upside (raw oversells it).
Both Lg Adj and Qual Adj factor the opponent's recent performance — Lg Adj through a custom recency blend, Qual Adj over the last 15 games — ensuring the signal reflects current form rather than season-long averages.