Every reliever is classified into one of four tiers based on their recent workload:
Available β Fresh and ready to pitch. These arms have had adequate rest and manageable recent workloads.
Questionable β Likely available but not ideal. Typically pitched recently with a moderate workload, or had two outings in the last three days with a day off in between.
Doubtful β Unlikely to pitch unless the game demands it. These relievers have pitched on back-to-back days, threw a high number of pitches or multiple innings yesterday, or have been used frequently over the last few days.
Unavailable β Not expected to pitch under any normal circumstance. These arms have pitched three straight days, three of the last four days, or had an especially heavy outing yesterday.
Pen Load Score (1β10)
Measures how hard a bullpen has been worked recently, weighted heavily toward the last 3 days. The score factors in total appearances, innings pitched, and pitches thrown. A thin bullpen with fewer available arms pushes the score higher.
1β3: Fresh β the pen is well-rested
4β6: Moderate β normal usage
7β8: Heavy β the pen has been leaned on, the starter may be asked to go longer than normal
9β10: Gassed β the team needs the starting pitcher to go long, even if they are hung out to dry
Daily Effective Pen
Estimates what this bullpen's ERA, strikeout rate, and walk rate would look like tonight based on who's actually available. Available arms count fully, questionable arms are partially weighted, doubtful arms barely factor in, and unavailable arms are excluded entirely. The result is blended with the team's season and recent performance to smooth out early-season noise.